A recent study reveals that couples who marry on Valentine’s Day, or other novelty dates like 9/9/99, face a significantly higher risk of divorce than those who choose ordinary wedding days. The findings, published by researchers at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, raise questions about the motivations behind choosing such dates and the long-term stability of relationships that begin with them.
The Data: A Clear Trend
Researchers Jan Kabátek and David Ribar analyzed over 1.1 million marriages in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. The data showed that couples marrying on Valentine’s Day were approximately 33% more likely to divorce by their ninth anniversary (21% vs. 16% for ordinary days). Those marrying on dates with repeating numbers (like 9/9/99) showed a 25% higher divorce rate (19% vs. 16%).
This isn’t just a small statistical quirk: Valentine’s Day weddings were three times more frequent than comparable February days, and repeating-number dates saw six times the weddings of average days. The researchers accounted for this higher volume, meaning the increased divorce rates weren’t merely due to more weddings happening on these dates.
Why Does This Matter?
The study highlights a trend: people are deliberately choosing dates perceived as ‘special’ for their weddings. But why does this increase the chance of divorce? The researchers argue it’s less about the dates themselves and more about the type of couples who pick them.
“Sliding” vs. “Deciding” in Relationships
The core idea is that couples who choose gimmicky dates may be driven by external cues – the date itself – rather than deep compatibility. This aligns with the researchers’ concept of “sliding” versus “deciding” in relationships.
- Deciding couples move forward based on strong, deliberate choices.
- Sliding couples drift into marriage based on inertia or external pressures.
According to Ribar, couples who marry on special dates are more likely to be in the “sliding” category, making them more susceptible to external factors and potentially less committed to the long-term health of their partnership.
Demographic Differences
The study further reveals that couples marrying on these dates are less similar in age and education levels. They are also more likely to have been married before or already have children. These factors, independent of the date, already contribute to higher divorce rates.
“These couples may be more ambivalent about the formality or attendance of the ceremony,” Ribar and Kabátek write.
This suggests that the choice of date itself may be a symptom of a weaker foundation, rather than the cause of marital breakdown.
Conclusion
The research suggests that while a Valentine’s Day wedding might feel romantic, it’s associated with a demonstrably higher risk of divorce. The link isn’t supernatural, but rooted in the psychological and demographic characteristics of couples who choose such dates. If long-term stability is your goal, picking an ordinary day might be the wiser choice.
